Projects / Programmes source: ARIS

Napoved incidence raka v Sloveniji do leta 2000 in 2010 (Slovene)

Research activity

Code Science Field Subfield
3.04.00  Medical sciences  Oncology   

Code Science Field
B520  Biomedical sciences  General pathology, pathological anatomy 
B680  Biomedical sciences  Public health, epidemiology 
cancer incidence prediction, APC models, Slovenia, breast, cervix uteri, lung, mouth and pharynx.
Evaluation (rules)
source: COBISS
Researchers (4)
no. Code Name and surname Research area Role Period No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  13260  Barbara Japelj Pavešič  Educational studies  Researcher  1998 - 2001  207 
2.  03279  PhD Vera Pompe-Kirn  Oncology  Head  1999 - 2001  365 
3.  04399  PhD Maja Primic-Žakelj  Oncology  Researcher  1999 - 2001  834 
4.  12686  PhD Neva Volk  Medical sciences  Researcher  1997 - 2001  82 
Organisations (2)
no. Code Research organisation City Registration number No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  0302  Institute of Oncology Ljubljana  Ljubljana  5055733000  15,118 
2.  0553  Educational Research Institute  Ljubljana  5051614000  6,749 
Data from the Cancer Registry of Slovenia for the years 1965-1994, and the official national population projections are used to predict cancer incidence for all and selected cancer sites up to the year 2009 in Slovenia. Age-period-cohort models as defined in the GLIM package are applied. In the case of data heterogeneity (lung, oral cavity and pharyngeal cancer in males) an additional parameter indicating differences in life style was used. In 1998 two papers were writen (one for the broad Slovenian medical audience, and the other for an international peer revewied journal). In the two papers predictions for breast, cervical, lung, mouth and pharyngeal cancer are presented. For female breast cancer additional 100 new cases per year are predicted in next 15 years, while for cervical cancer no major changes are expected. For lung cancer a steady decrease of new cases in males, and an increase in females are predicted, while for mouth and pharyngeal cancer in males after an increase in the period 1995-1999, a gradual decrease is expected. Despite certain uncertainities predictions of cancer incidence for a few years in advance are importante in setting priorities for cancer control strategies.
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