Projects / Programmes
Napoved incidence raka v Sloveniji do leta 2000 in 2010 (Slovene)
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 3.04.00 |
Medical sciences |
Oncology |
|
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| B520 |
Biomedical sciences |
General pathology, pathological anatomy |
| B680 |
Biomedical sciences |
Public health, epidemiology |
cancer incidence prediction, APC models, Slovenia, breast, cervix uteri, lung, mouth and pharynx.
Researchers (4)
Organisations (2)
Abstract
Data from the Cancer Registry of Slovenia for the years 1965-1994, and the official national population projections are used to predict cancer incidence for all and selected cancer sites up to the year 2009 in Slovenia. Age-period-cohort models as defined in the GLIM package are applied. In the case of data heterogeneity (lung, oral cavity and pharyngeal cancer in males) an additional parameter indicating differences in life style was used. In 1998 two papers were writen (one for the broad Slovenian medical audience, and the other for an international peer revewied journal). In the two papers predictions for breast, cervical, lung, mouth and pharyngeal cancer are presented. For female breast cancer additional 100 new cases per year are predicted in next 15 years, while for cervical cancer no major changes are expected. For lung cancer a steady decrease of new cases in males, and an increase in females are predicted, while for mouth and pharyngeal cancer in males after an increase in the period 1995-1999, a gradual decrease is expected. Despite certain uncertainities predictions of cancer incidence for a few years in advance are importante in setting priorities for cancer control strategies.
