Projects / Programmes
Identification and treating of uncertainties in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 2.03.04 |
Engineering sciences and technologies |
Energy engineering |
Energy systems |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| T160 |
Technological sciences |
Nuclear engineering and technology |
probabilistic safety assessment, probability theory, statisical methods, uncertainty, basic event, initiating event
Researchers (2)
| no. |
Code |
Name and surname |
Research area |
Role |
Period |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
11425 |
PhD Romana Jordan Cizelj |
Energy engineering |
Head |
2002 - 2004 |
508 |
| 2. |
06631 |
PhD Iztok Parzer |
Energy engineering |
Researcher |
2002 - 2004 |
194 |
Organisations (1)
| no. |
Code |
Research organisation |
City |
Registration number |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
0106 |
Jožef Stefan Institute |
Ljubljana |
5051606000 |
90,753 |
Abstract
Probabilistic Safety Assessment is a widely used approach for assessment of risk of complex technologies. Models are developed using principles of probability theory, Boolean algebra and statistical methods. Because it is not possible to exactly model a system and its behaviour, the results of an analysis are uncertain. Consequently a probabilistic safety assessment, used for different applications, has to contain uncertainty analysis. This issue is very important since PSA results are used (besides deterministic analyses) for different decisions, for example for test and maintenance optimization, evaluation of modifications, and similar applications.
At the beginning of the research, possible sources of uncertainties in PSA analyses will be identified. Stress will be given on assessment of uncertainties when estimating input parameters into PSA models. The emphasis will be given on assessment and formal mathematical description of uncertainties when modeling components and initiating events.
With the component models one can estimate, what is the probability, that a component will operate successfully in a specified time or when demanded. Initiating events are events, which can lead to unwanted consequences, which are in nuclear engineering often defined as core damage, core melting, or exposure of radioactivity in the environment. The assessment of risk with PSA methods is based on selection of initiating events. Consequently, a (as much as possible) complete uncertainty analysis significantly contributes to the quality and relevance of PSA results.
The goals of the research project are:
- identification of sources of uncertainty; stress will be given to the analysis of initiating events and component models;
- development of a method for uncertainty analysis of component models if different sets of data are available,
- development of a method for uncertainty analysis of initiating event models if different sets of data are available.
