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Projects / Programmes source: ARIS

Prognostični in diagnostični modelirni sistem za kontrolo onesnaženja ozračja v regiji (Slovene)

Research activity

Code Science Field Subfield
1.02.04  Natural sciences and mathematics  Physics  Meteorology and oceanography 

Code Science Field
1.05  Natural Sciences  Earth and related Environmental sciences 
Evaluation (rules)
source: COBISS
Researchers (5)
no. Code Name and surname Research area Role Period No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  11773  PhD Marija Zlata Božnar  Physics  Researcher  2009 - 2012  271 
2.  27664  PhD Boštjan Grašič  Physics  Researcher  2009 - 2012  175 
3.  04290  PhD Primož Mlakar  Physics  Head  2009 - 2012  268 
4.  18962  Darko Popović    Technical associate  2009  21 
5.  32421  Sašo Vrbinc    Technical associate  2010 - 2012  11 
Organisations (1)
no. Code Research organisation City Registration number No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  2574  MEIS environmental cosulting d.o.o.  Šmarje - Sap  2271478  304 
Significance for science
The most relevant contribution to the science is successful weather forecast in fine resolution (local and temporal) and its applicable use in air pollution modelling. It has been proven that it is possible, even for very complicated situations over a complex terrain, as is the case with Slovenia, to simultaneously produce efficient local weather forecasts and forecasts of air pollution by matching the time and space with the actual state (which is done at the automated environmental measuring stations). To achieve this goal, we have combined the prognostic and diagnostic methods, as this was the only way we could predict the weather forecasts in fine resolution, which have matched the measured state even at the layers close to the ground. In addition to this, we have joined the diagnostics and prognostics systems for local air pollution and the inter-state QualeAria system – which operates in real-time power mode even over the area of Slovenia and is based at Arianet (our partner from Milano in this study) – to automatically assess how the air pollution transported from other regions contributes to local air pollution. We have also tried two new methods to validate the modelling systems in order to show how air pollution spreads in the atmosphere. Both methods are important, particularly where results are good enough for us to talk about matching time and space over a very complex terrain. We have defined in detail an analysis method of such matching with a possible deviation in time and space. There was a special focus on the unique characterization of the validated method according to the terrain complexity over which we examine the events in the atmosphere. We have implemented the "height and length of the terrain complexity". To be able to transfer and use the validation results, we have discussed only the resolution for which the validation has been carried out; however, in addition to this, we have introduced a standardised data concerning the field, as it is not nearly the same if a model is validated in a 4km horizontal resolution over the Grand Canyon or over the canyon of the Sava river in Zasavje. A comprehensive testing environment ("testbed"), which includes a diagnostic and prognostic modelling system is of great scientific importance: • operation in fine resolution, • over complex terrain, and • in real time over a period of several years. The tested has proven to be a successful validation tool. The database, which contains the results of the diagnostic and prognostic modelling over a longer period of time (a few years) and measurements of the air pollution, will be available for further extensive validation of the model and the possible comparison with the results of other models to assess if they are to be used over a very complex terrain. This is a very important database, because air pollution model validations are extremely complex and expensive projects. Our validations, which have been implemented and published in scientific literature, have confirmed that detailed air pollution forecasts for local areas over a very complex terrain are already (scientifically) reliable enough to further use them as a prognostic tool for making decisions in emergency situations in the vicinity of nuclear power plants. The need for such a system is even more evident after the accident at Fukushima in Japan. We have been cooperating with experts from the Medical Faculty of Ljubljana to develop a detailed methodology for the geographical impact analysis of atmospheric pollution on the health of the population, which is something new for Slovenia. Good results are important, particularly because they were obtained over a very complex area of the Zasavje region where there is no homogeneity in the air pollution, which would make it easier to identify the correlations between pollution and diseases. Two papers on this subject have been sent to be published in a scientific journal.
Significance for the country
The proposed research application project – the ongoing diagnostic and prognostic modelling system for the reconstruction of air pollution – is a good example of how the data transfer of the most advanced scientific tools in daily public use is a good practice to fully understand the causes for and the extent of air pollution in industrial regions over a complex terrain. This system is the first system for the online forecasting and air pollution diagnosis in Slovenia in fine local and temporal resolutions, built with the most powerful scientific models currently available for such a purpose and thus successfully validated to match the modelling results in space and time with the actual state. Therefore, the system can be used for not only the Zasavje region, but any other region where people face excessive air pollution. And unfortunately, there are some regions facing such problems. The system is therefore suitable for testing scenarios if they are good enough for rehabilitation, and for identifying the actual state, because the automatic measuring stations are to scarce to assess the impact on the population. Such assessment of the actual state is also determined by the EU Directive on cleaner air for Europe. One of the products of this project is the combination of our system with the results of the QualeAria modelling system of our Italian partners. The product of these joined systems is also the result of the pollution modelling throughout Slovenia which is available in real-time mode and archival database for more than a year now. These results can be used for annual reporting in Brussels by the Environmental Agency of the RS (ARSO). We have prepared a presentation on the project development and the actual achievements and presented to: • ARSO personnel, which deals with the issues of modelling, • ARSO CEO (during the project and as the acting Director-General who now carries out these tasks), • personnel of the Ministry of the Environment (during the project implementation) and the Ministry of Agriculture and the Environment, • members of the Slovenian meteorology society, • Slovenian member of the EU parliament who deals with the problems of atmospheric pollution. Alongside the development of the methodology and products within the framework of this project, we also took on the projects for the Slovene market whereby we used similar techniques. We have thus used scientific achievements directly for research and services for the market at the highest level. This particular field of concentration on pollutants in the atmosphere is of great importance as we have adequately assessed the impact of some of the major Slovenian companies responsible for industrial air pollution, which is a direct request from the IPPC EU Directive (Thermal power plants Šoštanj and Trbovlje, Acroni, Cinkarna Celje, Lafarge Cementarna Trbovlje, Steklarna Hrastnik). During the project implementation we have completed a comprehensive impact analysis – air pollution due to block 6 at TEŠ – on a level which was fully acceptable to Austria. In the Krško Nuclear Power Plan (NEK), while writing this report, we are finishing up the renovation of the system for the dose assessment in the case of an accident due to possible emissions of radionuclides into the atmosphere. This system is also one of the components which contributed to this, as the NEK achieved the best results on EU stress tests. In these two cases in particular, and in the case of IPPC liable companies, it has been shown how very important it is to quickly transfer the latest scientific findings into the Slovenian industrial practice. The system we built gives realistic results by matching the evidence in space and time with the actual state, and does not merely present a "nice picture".
Most important scientific results Annual report 2011, final report, complete report on dLib.si
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results Annual report 2011, final report, complete report on dLib.si
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