Projects / Programmes
Development of prognostic fundamentals for forest protection in Slovenia
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 4.01.01 |
Biotechnical sciences |
Forestry, wood and paper technology |
Forest - forestry |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| B430 |
Biomedical sciences |
Sylviculture, forestry, forestry technology |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 4.01 |
Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences |
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries |
forest protection, prognosis, model, method for data collection, information system, standard operating procedure, quality
Researchers (1)
| no. |
Code |
Name and surname |
Research area |
Role |
Period |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
23448 |
PhD Nikica Ogris |
Forestry, wood and paper technology |
Head |
2010 - 2012 |
1,213 |
Organisations (1)
| no. |
Code |
Research organisation |
City |
Registration number |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
0404 |
Slovenian Forestry Institute |
Ljubljana |
5051673000 |
12,023 |
Abstract
The Reporting, Prognostic and Diagnostic Service for Forests (PDP) was established at the Slovenian Forestry Institute by legislation on forest protection. The prognostic part of the PDP service has never come into practice. The main reason for this is the absence of a proper information system, i.e. reliable information system that offers current and archive data is the basis for every prognostic method. Therefore, we propose the development of prognostic fundamentals for forest protection in Slovenia. The project will have three working packages: standard operating procedures for developing prognostic models in forest protection (WP1), methods for monitoring biotic and abiotic factors that are or can become harmful to forests, emphasising key data that are important for performing quality prognoses (WP2), an information system that would be the basis for prognosis of harmful phenomena for forest (WP3).
We will develop the following standard operating procedures for developing prognostic models in forest protection (WP1): a general procedure to develop a model, a procedure for the selection of the model type according to purpose of the model, procedures for the development of the various model types, a procedure for choosing the right model complexity, a procedure for the selection of the variables in the model and the determination of the data quality, a procedure to determine model sensitivity, procedures for the calibration of the model, and procedures for the validation of the model.
We will critically review the current methods for the monitoring of harmful biotic and abiotic factors for forests. During the review process, the focus will be on key data that are important for quality prognoses. WP2 will include: a description of general methods and directives for monitoring of harmful biotic and abiotic factors for forests, a description of the methods for assessment of forest health, a standard operating procedure for the development of the monitoring method for specific harmful organisms, with the purpose of data collection for short-term prognosis, and a description of the methods for monitoring of the most important harmful biotic and abiotic factors for forests.
The information system (WP3) will operate on an electronic basis; therefore, it will be named “E-forest Protection” (EVG), which will be a tool for making reports on the all organisational levels of the Slovenian Forestry Service (ZGS), data analysis, education, communication with forest protection experts, and determination of the causes for tree injuries. EVG will be a central information warehouse for forest protection in Slovenia. We will take into consideration following principles and directives in the system development: the system must be a useful tool at the every level of ZGS, easy to use and user friendly; there are to be no duplicate data inputs; it will enable traceability and control of records; it will be a source of knowledge and will enable prognoses of good quality. We will develop the information system using Microsoft .NET Framework 3.5, Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 and Microsoft SQL Server 2005. We will establish a connection to existent and relevant databases of the ZGS and Phytosanitary Administration of the Republic of Slovenia.
We will publish a scientific monograph, including the results of this project, at the end of the project.
The results of the project will have significant and long-term impact on the development of forest protection in Slovenia. A data warehouse for forest protection will be established, as well as the basis for performing prognoses in forest protection. This will be the basis for modelling and predicting harmful biotic and abiotic factors in the forests of Slovenia. The proposed project will establish the basis for quality and competitive work in the entire field of forest protection, especially with regards to prognosis.
Significance for science
The results of the project are going to have remarkable and long-term impact on development of forest protection in Slovenia. A data warehouse for forest protection is established and the basis for performing prognoses in forest protection is built. This is the basis for modelling and predicting harmful biotic and abiotic factors in the forest of Slovenia. The project established the basis for quality and competitive work in the entire field of forest protection, especially with regards to prognosis.
Significance for the country
This project upgraded public infrastructure for government because PPD is part of forest public service that was established with Act about forests:
- Fundamentals (standard operative procedures) for new prognostic model in forest protection were developed.
- Monitoring methods for harmful biotic and abiotic factors for forest were prepared.
- EVG system will simplify the work of foresters in the field of forest protection, work will be more transparent, faster and results will be of better quality.
- Public will be informed about up-to-date news in forest protection.
With the project, fundamentals for prognosis in forest protection in Slovenia were established, i.e. methods for data collection, methods for development of prognostic models and data warehouse. Reliable prognosis of good quality can warn us where and when a harmful factor for forest will emerge. This enables us to better prepare for the coming danger and to lower the tree injuries or even to prevent them. Preventive action is always cheaper than sanative which is well documented at integral forest protection. This is one way to protect our most valuable natural heritage, i.e. forest.
In the frame of project (WP3) the EVG system was developed. The EVG portal will raise quality level of forester knowledge and consequently the quality of data they collect in the field of forest protection. Data of better quality means more reliable prognoses. EVG portal will raise the level of public awareness in the field of forest protection. Development and implementation of computer application VG together with EVG will enable unified data collection about occurrences of harmful factors in forest and means long-term solution for performing prognostic part of PPD service, what was not possible until now.
Most important scientific results
Annual report
2010,
2011,
final report,
complete report on dLib.si
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Annual report
2010,
2011,
final report,
complete report on dLib.si
