Projects / Programmes
The impact of recession on the interaction of regions in the global supply chains and land use
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 5.08.00 |
Social sciences |
Urbanism |
|
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| S240 |
Social sciences |
Town and country planning |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 5.09 |
Social Sciences |
Other social sciences |
regions, regional interactions, supply chains, land use, energy, environment, pollution, recession
Researchers (8)
Organisations (3)
Abstract
In the research project we shall demonstrate that combination of MRP theory extended to the modern supply chain risk management (SCRM) and Lowry -like models embedded in production functions of activity cells in the supply networks enables mathematical formalization of Castells concept known as "reconceptualization of new forms of spatial arrangements under the new technological paradigm", and to construct the simulation models which enable to forecast the interactions of space of flows and space of places and to evaluate the impact of supply chain perturbations on the certain criterion function (very often Net present value- NPV- of all activities in a supply chain), needed especially in time of recession. NPV results influence also real estate market as it was the case 3 years ago, when this market crashed. Therefore permanent study of interactions between supply chain flows (flow of items, information and financial flows, where also polution and antipolution industry with reverse logistics is subject of our analysis) and land use in the space of places assure more stable economy. It enables better forcasting of real estate market volatility. Analitical approach in real and frequency space will be combined also by fuzzy approach.
The dynamic models will show how the production functions embedded in the activity cells of supply chains in a region could connect the flow of human resources to the region and intensity of flows of items in given supply chains, and influence polution, reverse logistics and changes of real estate market, which could be in ruins in time of recession. Actuarial methods will be explored to get the best results.
Significance for science
Europeans are leaving in watershed time when the main drivers of economy are falling in crises and should change their strategies. Decreasing fertility decreased population growth while increasing life expectancy increase the population growth of older cohorts which influence also a demand in the real estate industry, but the needs of this part of population are different than the needs of industrial society in the last two centuries, which should reflect in designing and renewal of towns. The financial crisis in Europe has caused oversupply of housing units on the real estate market and heavy losses for older people by increasing average retirement age, decreasing the value of pensions, decreasing ECB interest rate and decreasing returns on assets held by pension funds. Stated problems present a new set of challenges regarding management of real estate assets especially those owned by senior citizens. Multiple decrement model as a case of multistate transition was studied also in our project as an appropriate model for better understanding supply and demand on residential real estate market caused by aging population and can improve spatial planning based on demographic changes, as stated in the contributions: "Forecasting demand of housing in crisis and in time of recovery when the older cohorts are the main buyers" [COBISS.SI-ID 6624609] and "Planning and financial mechanisms for more liquid housing market" [COBISS.SI-ID 6624097] both invited lectures at: Technologies and Financial Mechanisms for Smart Cities, TeFiMeSmaci 2014, Technical University Cartagena, Spain, June, 2014, being part of forthcoming Springer e-Book. The large number of scientific articles in the field of risk management in the supply chain (in ScienceDirect over 30,000) shows the importance of this topics. However, only a few papers deal with the impact of changes in supply systems to changes in land use, despite the fact that the current crisis has demonstrated the inseparable link between the economy and life of the inhabitants of the developed world with the real estate market, and is most affected by the real estate market and industry which is related to this market. The publication of our works in journals A" and other relevant scientific publications, such as Springer publications, as well as international recognition of our research (see Annex SICRIS) and invitations to international conferences prove the originality of approaches, methods used in the project and the applicability of the results for further research work in the field of spatial analysis and use of space. Above all, the results are important for the three directions of further research: 1. The development of individual models: their combinations contribute to the quantification Arrighi's theory on the relationship between the space of flows and space of places (regions, locations). 2. Developed a new simulation model evaluated the effects of perturbations in space, even in the property market, which is a new contribution to science. 3.- The implementation of the simulator to predict the results of perturbations in the economy and the environment as impacts on set criterion function that can be changed depending on the perception of decision-makers from local authorities to economic entities and non-governmental organizations. The compact representation of a model of reverse logistics in global supply networks and provide an opportunity to develop a simulator sensitivity analysis of parameters of models and a new approach to deciding between measures of higher direct economic impacts and better protect the environment and care for the population, which is rapidly changing demographic structure. 4. Intramax method is upgraded which is expanding its usefulness in the analysis of the central places and their functional areas.
Significance for the country
The perturbations in supply chains and in the property real estate market which are considered in our models, and applications are topical in times of financial crises and specially during the recessions, when the flows between activity cells of supply networks are disturbed and only with difficulty the companies are able to create new links. Those perturbations influence also the demand for human resources and destroyed the real estate market, which represents not only the space of production for human resources as factor of production, but also influences accessibility of build environment to other members of households. It follows that the realization of the project, is not only of a scientific importance, but also relevant for implementation of some solutions in the Slovenian or the wider European area. 1) Project team has developed models for better prediction of demand in the real estate market and enable assessment of disruption risk of real estate market. Models represent decision support tool for planning of the land use, which was performed very poorly before crisis. despite the fact that our project team in the monograph for "Space 2020" predicted oversupply on Slovenian housing market already in 2004. 2) Since 2001 the Government Office for Local Self-Government and Regional Policy was intensively Coordinating Activities of the Implementation of Promotion of Balanced Regional Development Act and the regional development policy. Location theory, regional science and business logistics must offer a common, more compact, interdisciplinary theoretic platform to these activities in the space. With extension of Intramax methods and gravity models it will be easier to delineate functional regions, covered by individual activities of a supply chain optimally, investment policies and also the formal regionalization of Slovenian space as longstanding indoubt threads on the introduction of Provinces. 3) We also have developed technical basis for the introduction of flexible reverse mortgages in Slovenia and Europe in general, as fourth pension pillar which would revitalize the real estate market. 4.) As demand for housing among the younger population declines and rises among the elderly, many housing units will need to be adapted for older populations, which will have spatial implications for provision of welfare. Such trends may produce demographic and spatial pressures for cities, as well as issues regarding social service delivery and organization of retirement communities in the existing town or in their surroundings. We must have a plan how to amalgamate communities with integrative part of elderly together by investments in facilities which can push down the disability threshold. The asset tied in real property, properly released, could provide additional sources for better cover of those needs. New sources of finance will be required to adapt housing units for aging cohorts, therefore the financial support through flexible equity release mortgages may be a solution. 5.)While migration flow can be forecaster using gravity model for structured flows regarding age cohorts (Drobne and Bogataj, 2012), forecasting of housing supply and demand of different cohorts, regarding decreasing functional capacity could be improved by multiple decrement model, which has to be further developed to improve the housing market in Slovenia..
Most important scientific results
Annual report
2011,
2012,
2013,
final report,
complete report on dLib.si
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Annual report
2011,
2012,
2013,
final report,
complete report on dLib.si
