Meteorological extremes and climatic change in Serbia

In this project we will study the extreme meteorological events that occur in the Serbia, by using different kind of numerical models and by applying some statistical methods on historical data. By using the initial and boundary conditions from the model ensemble simulation we will conduct an ensemble regional climate change simulation for period 1965 –2030 at high resolution with the coupled regional climate model for Euro-Mediterranean region. We will simulate the intense convective precipitation in small catchments by using the sophisticate cloud-resolving mesoscale model that can give the reliable input data for hydrological models and thus the flood forecasts and warnings. This aim will be attain by improving the single sounding data in the boundary layer. Also, we will use initial and boundary conditions from the regional model. We will develop a cloud chemistry module for some chemical species and its coupling with cloud resolving mesoscale model. In this Project, the historical data of extreme value of temperature and precipitation in Serbia will be examined. The main goal is an analysis of heat waves and heavy precipitation applying some statistical methods. Various climate indicators will be applied in order to examine duration of heat waves, droughts and days with heavy precipitation. ?he circulation conditions which caused the heat waves and heavy precipitation in Serbia will be analysed too.