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Projects / Programmes source: ARRS

Development of detection methods for injuries of coniferous trees due to spruce and fir bark beetles and development of forecasting models of spruce and fir bark beetles outbreaks in Slovenia

Research activity

Code Science Field Subfield
4.01.01  Biotechnical sciences  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Forest - forestry 

Code Science Field
B430  Biomedical sciences  Sylviculture, forestry, forestry technology 

Code Science Field
4.01  Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences  Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 
Keywords
model, prognosis, Ips typographus, Pityogenes chalcographus, multispectral image, information system, notifying system
Evaluation (rules)
source: COBISS
Researchers (15)
no. Code Name and surname Research area Role Period No. of publications
1.  28895  Danijel Borkovič    Technician  2016 - 2019  30 
2.  29092  PhD Maarten De Groot  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2016 - 2019  606 
3.  29164  PhD Mitja Ferlan  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2017 - 2019  208 
4.  30165  PhD Tine Hauptman  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2016 - 2019  198 
5.  29831  Špela Jagodic    Technician  2016 - 2019 
6.  02491  PhD Maja Jurc  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2016 - 2019  564 
7.  33222  PhD Andreja Kavčič  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2016 - 2019  1,030 
8.  16067  PhD Andrej Kobler  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Researcher  2016 - 2019  284 
9.  25640  PhD Žiga Kokalj  Geography  Researcher  2016 - 2019  354 
10.  23448  PhD Nikica Ogris  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Principal Researcher  2016 - 2019  1,086 
11.  13256  Roman Pavlin  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Technician  2016 - 2019  86 
12.  20005  PhD Tatjana Veljanovski  Geodesy  Researcher  2016 - 2019  153 
13.  32702  Saša Vochl  Forestry, wood and paper technology  Technician  2016 - 2019  117 
14.  36123  PhD Luka Zajec  Control and care of the environment  Researcher  2016 - 2019 
15.  31293  Jure Žlogar    Technician  2016 - 2019  22 
Organisations (4)
no. Code Research organisation City Registration number No. of publications
1.  0404  Slovenian Forestry Institute  Ljubljana  5051673000  11,847 
2.  0481  University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty  Ljubljana  1626914  64,100 
3.  0618  Research Centre of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts  Ljubljana   5105498000  58,430 
4.  3267  RACE KOGO razvojni center koroškega gospodarstva d.o.o. (Slovene)  Slovenj Gradec  3966950 
Abstract
Bark beetles are most frequent and most important harmful factors of spruce and fir in Slovenia. In 2015 in Slovenia the highest outbreak in history was recorded, what was expected result of catastrophic ice damage in 2014, increasing trends of outbreaks, and unusually warm and dry summers. It was demonstrated that current methods of monitoring of abundance of bark beetle populations are too general and not reliable, measures for controlling bark beetle populations are inefficient and unfeasible. First symptoms of bark beetle attack are determined by Public forest service in the field. This is time consuming process because survey takes place over vast areas. Bark beetle outbreaks are usually discovered too late, when the bark beetles leave the attacked trees and the economic damage is already done. Consequently, the number of beetles as number of attacked of trees increase, what leads to even greater economic damage. We deal with the described problems in the proposed project in three packages: (1) Sensing, monitoring and control of sanitation of bark beetle outbreaks with remote sensing methods, e.g. multispectral imagery (satellites and drone images); (2) Risk assessment of conifers because of bark beetles according to different ecological factors; (3) Improvement of the system for short-term forecasting of spruce bark beetle outbreaks (control traps with pheromone lure) with development and validation of phenological model of spruce bark beetles. We are going to fulfil the following project goals: 1. Evaluate the use of multispectral imagery of forests to discover, monitor and show of bark beetle outbreaks and forecasting of bark beetle outbreaks development, and suggesting possible measures against bark beetle outbreaks on the basis of analysis of multispectral images; 2. Establish a control system over efficiency of sanitation of bark beetle outbreaks with help of multispectral images; 3. Studies of use of multispectral cameras for determination of health status of trees and their suitability for independent use in the Public forest service, expected expenses including; 4. Development of algorithms for determination of risk degree of individual conifer species because of bark beetles at different ecological conditions; 5. Development and validation of phenological model of spruce bark beetles in Slovenia and development of the system for automatic calculation of first swarming in spring and the end date of development of first generation until which the monitoring of Ips typographus andPityogenes chalcographus is taking place; 6. Establishment of automatic notifying system of local and regional units of Slovenia forest service about the first swarming and the end of first generation of Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus. The project is going to be organized into four work packages: (1) Coordination; (2) Remote sensing; (3) Risk assessment of conifers; (4) Phenological model of spruce bark beetles and the notifying system. We are going to fulfil project goals 1–3 in the WP2, in the WP3 we are going to accomplish project goal 3, in the WP4 we are going to fulfil goals 4 and 5. The project is going to assure the following results: ·         Model for sensing bark beetle outbreaks and their spread on the basis of MODIS images. ·         Model for sensing bark beetle outbreaks and their spread on the basis of Sentinel-2 images. ·         Model for monitoring sanitation of bark beetle outbreaks. ·         Data and vegetation indexes from the satellite MODIS for the period 1999–2018 and for the satellite Sentinel-2 for 2016–2018, for the area of Slovenia. ·         Report about usefulness of multicopter (drone) for monitoring of spruce and fir bark beetle outbreaks. ·         Database of field reference data for Sentinel-2 images. ·         Database of field reference data for multicopter (drone) images. ·         Web interactive application for monitoring (sensing) of bark beetle outbreaks and their sanitation on the
Significance for science
The developed and validated phenological model of spruce bark beetles in Slovenia and established system for the automatic calculation of the expected swarming in spring and the date of the end of the development of the first generation, which is used to monitor catch for Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus, together with the notification system of local and regional units of the Slovenia forest service about beginning of swarming and end of first generation of Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus will enable rationalization of the layout of the control traps with pheromone products that pose a significant every year cost to the country. This will complement the prognostic part of the Reporting, diagnostic-prognostic service for Slovenia forests, which is managed and directed by the Slovenian Forest Institute under the provisions of the Regulations on the Protection of Forests and implemented by SFI and SFS. Existing terrestrial control methods of spruce and fir bark beetle outbreaks will be supplemented with complementary system of large-scale satellite monitoring system of spruce and fir bark beetle outbreaks, which will be available online. The system will support decision-making on possible measures to mitigate the outbreaks and will supplement the control over the effectiveness of sanitation of bark beetle outbreaks. The study of multicopter usability for monitoring outbreaks of spruce and fir bark beetles will provide a professional basis for deciding on the practical introduction of relatively cheap and especially up-to-date remote monitoring of the outbreaks on a large scale in the Public forestry service. Control with IR camera on multicopter is expected to enable detection of bark beetle attack in the early stages of infestation (before the change of colour of needles). The models for detection of the presence of outbreaks and the monitoring of the dynamics of development and degree of infestation of spruce on the basis of satellite multispectral imagery will be a major step forward in the protection of forests in Slovenia, which will be upgraded by means of remote sensing methods of forest damage due to bark beetles. Study of the use of multispectral images will identify possibilities for determination of the health status of trees by remote sensing methods and we are going to determine if they are suitable for independent use at the Public forestry service. Climate change has a large impact on the bark beetles. It is therefore important to understand the ecological and climatological factors which could affect population outbreaks of the bark beetles. Although the spruce bark beetle (I. typographus) is strongly investigated the main focus is on site characteristics, but models taking into account population dynamics and climate data of the previous year thus far is not common. Slovenia will get with the proposed project the model for midterm risk assessment of spruce due to bark beetles for one year ahead.
Significance for the country
The proposed project will upgrade the existing Electronic information system for forest health in Slovenia, which is part of the Public forestry service, which is implemented by the Slovenia Forest Service and the Slovenian Forestry Institute. Infrastructure for the state administration will be upgraded. Electronic information system for the forest health will be richer for four interactive web applications: (1) an interactive Web application to detect outbreaks and sanitation of outbreaks due to bark beetles based on multispectral satellite imagery; (2) Web interactive application for visualization of multispectral imagery of multicopter; (3) an interactive web application for review of risk maps for spruce and fir due to bark beetles in the following year; (4) an interactive map service as the planning tool for monitoring bark beetles abundance using control traps based on model calculation for the appearance of the first swarming and model calculation for the end of the development of the first generation. Reporting, diagnostic-prognostic service for forests will become richer by several prognostic models: (1) the model to detect the presence of outbreaks and the monitoring of the dynamics of development and degree of outbreaks based on MODIS imagery; (2) the model to detect the presence of outbreaks and the monitoring of the dynamics of development and degree of infestation, on the basis of Sentinel-2 imagery; (3) the model for the monitoring of outbreaks sanitation; (4) the spatial model for risk assessment of spruce due to spruce bark beetles with resolution of 1 km; (5) the spatial model for the risk assessment of fir due to bark beetles with resolution of 1 km; (6) the model to calculate the date of the first swarming of Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus, which serves as the date for a control trap monitoring start; (7) the model to calculate the date of occurrence of adults of the first generation of Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus, which serves as the date by which to monitor catch in control traps ends. Study of the use of multispectral imagery of multicopters in determining the health status of trees will determine their suitability for use in the Public forestry service. According to the research results, there is potential for the development of the industry to offer a comprehensive service of multispectral high-resolution imagery at an affordable price to the public administration.
Most important scientific results Annual report 2018, final report
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results Annual report 2016, 2018, final report
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