Projects / Programmes
DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES FOR COMMUNITY BASED
LONG-TERM CARE
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 6.12.00 |
Humanities |
Geography |
|
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| S230 |
Social sciences |
Social geography |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 5.07 |
Social Sciences |
Social and economic geography |
population aging, social infrastructure, long-term care, regional networks, multiple decrements model, migration of the elderly
Researchers (18)
Organisations (5)
Abstract
The proposed research belongs to the priority 6: More Years Better Life - MYBL.
Across Europe, communities need to respond to the unprecedented growth among their seniors. As Prof. Dobbs pointed out, (Black and Dobbs, 2013, 2015), the consequences of societal aging will impact all domains of life and the broader infrastructure. Therefore, we can agree that like in the USA also in Europe recent evidence suggests that communities are woefully unprepared to respond to this imperative. The waiting lines for assisted living in institutional care are too long and community care is developed badly. There is no proper infrastructure. The question appears what kind of housing and environment seniors in Slovenia prefer after substantial decline of their functional capacities. What kind of social infrastructure should be built? How to adopt their current dwellings and what to provide to them when they are not able to live in the home where they have lived years.
The proposed research will answer these questions and examine to what extent innovative approaches to development of social infrastructure that mitigates the risk of long-term care dependency should be built in regions on NUTS 5 and NUTS 3 level according to the affordable financial sources and optimization procedures which will be developed on multiple decrements model as derived by Bogataj et al. [COBIS ID - 38063621], here further developed and implemented on the regional level of Slovenian NUTS3 regions, considering also the optimal allocation of facilities in the hierarchical structure of spatial units (Drobne and Bogataj, COBISS.SI-ID 8025185). Investments in assisted-living facilities in urban areas and suburbs will be examine as well as prototypes of retirement villages. Based on the demographic analysis of spatial units on NUTS5 and NUTS3 level and actuarial study of required capacities and costs of investments and operative costs, the Slovenian regions will be categorized regarding existing infrastructure, demographic projections and actuarial evaluation of required investment and costs of services in dependence of the investment structure. The investments will be compared with the reduced costs of exposure to risk of dependency and higher costs of care in nursing homes. We shall base our further qualitative analysis on our previous conclusions regarding needs, standards and required improvements of standards as described in papers of Kavšek and Bogataj [COBISS.SI-ID 2048403202; 2048309762; 38818821; 38064901; 2048437506; 292502784], also on identfications and directives which follows from the results of research projects of Mali et al. [COBISS.SI-ID 4793189; 4718693;4135781 ] , exposed legal frameworks and requirements for changes based also on the study of Mali et al. [4937829] and on importance to protect the housing rights of seniors in the process of deinstitutionalization, as studied by Drobež and Bogataj [COBISS.SI-ID 38819333]. Triangulation with the findings from an exploratory inquiry, published by Black and Dobbs (2015), our experiences in Spain and some other papers listed in WoS, will be also part of our study.
Decision support system regarding investments in infrastructure will be developed based on the further development of multiple decrements and multi-state transition model extended to optimal housing, built environment and services, where qualitative and quantitative data from Slovenian regions and local authorities will be evaluated on the bases of actuarial present value. The results will show how build environment can offer support for longer autonomous and independent living of frail older people in the community. The optimization procedures will argue that national policymakers should move from the present primarily reactive to an increasingly proactive policy approach seeking both to prevent the loss of autonomy and thus reduce care demand, and to boost efficient, cost-effective care provision.
Significance for science
The project is based on 6 groups of vastly separated studied models which will obtain data from the databases built on standards of INSPIRE (inspire.jrc.ec.europa.eu) and our qualitative and quantitative research: (1.) Gravity models of commuting and migrations structured by age cohorts; (2.) Multi-state transition model/Competing Risk Model; with added components of housing and social infrastructure (3.) Real estate financing models (among them mortgage and secularization such as Equity Release Schemes and other schemes for providing sufficient financial sources for the well-being of all generations), (4.) Facility management; (5.) Urban networks modelling and supply chain control; (6.) Categorization and visualization of housing stock, commercial and public spaces according to the age friendly requirements.
The models will be further developed for the purposes of optimal long-term care provision under the bases of proper social infrastructure and properly compound. Such composition is novelty in the known scientific literature. In the core of the research is Multi-state transition model/Competing Risk Model as improved multiple decrements model with additional components of facilities and operations of long-term care as a novelty in the known literature.
For implementation of such models the proper database is needed which will be developed in this project and which is not available completely nowhere, according to our knowledge. All these models will provide some data needed for forecasting and control at different dynamics of investments in social infrastructure. They will support the decisions and long term policies of local authorities, regions and state, elder-care managers, banks, and individual actors on the market. To determine the parameters of multiple decrements in contingency with housing and social infrastructure, especially to determine the probabilities of transitions and costs associated with each of nodes in the graph, also qualitative analyses like those done by Black and Dobbs (2013), Chapin et al. (2001), Chapin and Dobbs-Kepper (2001) are required. To compare the costs and capacities in EU and USA and to determine the best practice and planning, the papers of Daaleman et al. (2008),Temple et al. (2009, 2010) and Gordon et al. (2010) will be guidelines for our further research. Debra Dobbs who is working with us was a co-author in all these papers. Therefore, we shall introduce similar qualitative and mixed methods as the ones developed by Debra Dobbs and her research group (Black and Dobbs, 2013; Chapin, Dobbs-Kepper, Oslund, 2001; Chapin and Dobbs-Kepper, 2001; Daaleman et al., 2008) to understand USA and European consumers of such products and to be able to explain why the numbers in EU and USA are not the same. Therefore triangulation approaches are also needed to find the best position of retirement villages in the complex of social infrastructure and services for community based long term care (LTC). Such approach is novelty in the literature.
Significance for the country
The project is based on 6 groups of vastly separated studied models which will obtain data from the databases built on standards of INSPIRE (inspire.jrc.ec.europa.eu) and our qualitative and quantitative research: (1.) Gravity models of commuting and migrations structured by age cohorts; (2.) Multi-state transition model/Competing Risk Model; with added components of housing and social infrastructure (3.) Real estate financing models (among them mortgage and secularization such as Equity Release Schemes and other schemes for providing sufficient financial sources for the well-being of all generations), (4.) Facility management; (5.) Urban networks modelling and supply chain control; (6.) Categorization and visualization of housing stock, commercial and public spaces according to the age friendly requirements.
The models will be further developed for the purposes of optimal long-term care provision under the bases of proper social infrastructure and properly compound. Such composition is novelty in the known scientific literature. In the core of the research is Multi-state transition model/Competing Risk Model as improved multiple decrements model with additional components of facilities and operations of long-term care as a novelty in the known literature.
For implementation of such models the proper database is needed which will be developed in this project and which is not available completely nowhere, according to our knowledge. All these models will provide some data needed for forecasting and control at different dynamics of investments in social infrastructure. They will support the decisions and long term policies of local authorities, regions and state, elder-care managers, banks, and individual actors on the market. To determine the parameters of multiple decrements in contingency with housing and social infrastructure, especially to determine the probabilities of transitions and costs associated with each of nodes in the graph, also qualitative analyses like those done by Black and Dobbs (2013), Chapin et al. (2001), Chapin and Dobbs-Kepper (2001) are required. To compare the costs and capacities in EU and USA and to determine the best practice and planning, the papers of Daaleman et al. (2008),Temple et al. (2009, 2010) and Gordon et al. (2010) will be guidelines for our further research. Debra Dobbs who is working with us was a co-author in all these papers. Therefore, we shall introduce similar qualitative and mixed methods as the ones developed by Debra Dobbs and her research group (Black and Dobbs, 2013; Chapin, Dobbs-Kepper, Oslund, 2001; Chapin and Dobbs-Kepper, 2001; Daaleman et al., 2008) to understand USA and European consumers of such products and to be able to explain why the numbers in EU and USA are not the same. Therefore triangulation approaches are also needed to find the best position of retirement villages in the complex of social infrastructure and services for community based long term care (LTC). Such approach is novelty in the literature.
Most important scientific results
Interim report
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Interim report
