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Projects / Programmes source: ARIS

Development of propability models of predicted climate change influence on slope mass movements´ occurrence in Slovenia

Research activity

Code Science Field Subfield
1.06.00  Natural sciences and mathematics  Geology   

Code Science Field
P470  Natural sciences and mathematics  Hydrogeology, geographical and geological engineering 
Keywords
landslides, slope mass movements, climate change, modeling, prediction, Slovenia
Evaluation (rules)
source: COBISS
Researchers (12)
no. Code Name and surname Research area Role Period No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  16309  PhD Miloš Bavec  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  433 
2.  28494  PhD Andrej Ceglar  Physics  Junior researcher  2008 - 2011  157 
3.  15807  PhD Magda Čarman  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  121 
4.  11062  PhD Zalika Črepinšek  Physics  Researcher  2008 - 2011  278 
5.  28456  PhD Mateja Jemec Auflič  Geology  Junior researcher  2008 - 2011  270 
6.  09593  PhD Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj  Physics  Researcher  2008 - 2011  2,711 
7.  18166  PhD Marko Komac  Geology  Head  2008 - 2011  521 
8.  27806  Matija Krivic  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  166 
9.  23033  Špela Kumelj  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  241 
10.  21384  PhD Matevž Novak  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  416 
11.  29075  Mitja Požar    Technical associate  2008 - 2011 
12.  23427  PhD Gorazd Žibret  Geology  Researcher  2008 - 2011  217 
Organisations (2)
no. Code Research organisation City Registration number No. of publicationsNo. of publications
1.  0215  Geological Survey of Slovenia  Ljubljana  5051410000  11,195 
2.  0481  University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty  Ljubljana  1626914  67,237 
Abstract
Slovenia has very versatile landscape and climate due to its position in between Alps, Mediterrain, Dinarides and Pannonian basin. Therefore climate changes influence mainly on weather occurrence. Consequently natural hazards (floods, landslides, mudflows, torrents…) in Slovenia are not rare events. In recent years, confrontation with climate and global changes focuses towards the prevention and minimization, and not only to tackle the consequences (as it is still practice in Slovenia). The great emphasis is focused on the improvement of preparedness of society for extreme occurrences which can happen as a consequence of climate changes. Since Slovenia is lacking in the field of confronting the foreseen changes, our aim is to develop a good strategy and to build models that will help us accommodate and adapt to expected climate changes. Climate changes and occurrences related to them i.e. intensive storms, lasting rainfall, retreat of snow-limit and consequently thawing of permafrost etc. ), with which the whole world confronts and Slovenia is no exception, are one of the most important triggering factors for the occurrence of slope mass movements. Slope mass movements are causing more and more damage, not only in the world but also in Slovenia and they often claim human lives too. The aim of research is to develop different models or scenarios of climatic changes impacts, which will serve as an input data into the assessment of temporal and spatial occurrence for slope mass movements (landslides, debris-flows, landslip, etc.) in the future. Developed mathematical model of climatic changes impacts on occurrence of slope mass movements will be used in spatial planning, protection of the environment, natural and cultural heritage, population etc. in the risky areas. At the same time, developed models could form a backbone for potential applications that could serve as a tool to support the civil protection at its work in case of potential natural disasters. Results of project represent an added value to existing models and have measurable social and economic impact also from a short-term aspect. Models will also be of great help in sustainable management of natural sources (water and space) and human destinies.
Significance for science
For two separate PSInSAR campaigns covering two areas in central Slovenia, an assessment of (co)relation between displacement rates of permanent scatterers (PS) located at actual (or potential) landslides and rainfall intensities was performed for the area of central and NW Slovenia for the period between 1992 and 2000. Displacement rates related to creeping processes were compared with the different durations and intensities of rain to assess the threshold values that initiate the creeping process and to assess the relation between the speed of movement and the precipitation events. As a side result of our research uplift trends of Alpine and Perialpine area were defined. Understanding of the weather (rainfall) dynamics in relation to climate changes, exogenic geologic and hydrologic phenomena, and their influence on the bio- and antrophosphere from the aspect of amplitude and frequency represents great challenge for the meteorological, biological, geological science. Due to the complexity and dimensions of the environment, where individual driving forces interact and result in greater impacts, a basic research focused in understanding particular phenomenon forms a solid foundation to the fulfilment of goals set at the beginning of the paragraph. Huge number of data from meteorologic stations (rainfall, T and other climate data) and from satellites (radar imagery – InSAR) that bear the information on surface displacemen, coupled with in-situ geologic and geomorphologic data, enable new isight into surface processes adding an additional dimension to their study. Analysing corelation between rainfall qunatities and dimensions of mass movements in regard to geological setting represents a basis for slope mass movements and their potential triggering prediction in the future.
Significance for the country
On average there is one landslide on every 1.5 square kilometres in Slovenia, excluding the flat terrain. In the years 1994 to 2008, the damage caused by landslides (and avalanches) summed to 99.1 million €, excluding the remediation costs. The main landslide triggering factor in Slovenia is rainfall that soaks geologically unstable strata. Despite the fact that the damage trend is constant, the damage value cannot be neglected. Hence, the main challenge is to reduce the damage (its total elimination is not a realistic goal). While with the new intervention into the environment (developments) the paradigm is simple – avoidance of exposed areas, the question of approach to the damage minimisation issue in the case of already built environment remains open. Buildings exposed to potential landslides are used for different purposes, some of them for residential facilities. In the scope of these problems, the knowledge that enables spatial (and with some reserve also temporal) slope mass movement occurrence assessment and prediction of possible mass triggering is crucial for the Civil protection measurements in real-time when the need arises. In addition the knowledge serves as a support to the sustainable spatial planning, which enables balanced regional development of regions that are usually both, exposed to slope mass movements and less developed
Most important scientific results Annual report 2008, 2009, final report, complete report on dLib.si
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results Annual report 2008, 2009, final report, complete report on dLib.si
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