Projects / Programmes
Comprehensive demographic analysis with demographic projections for rural and urban areas
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 6.12.02 |
Humanities |
Geography |
Social geography |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| S250 |
Social sciences |
Demography |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 5.07 |
Social Sciences |
Social and economic geography |
population, settlement, services of general interest, socio-economic analysis, demographic projections, spatial planning, regional planning
Researchers (15)
Organisations (2)
Abstract
The research is intended to prepare guidelines for expert groundwork for regional spatial planes for contents related to demographic development. The Regional Spatial Plan is a novelty introduced by the new Spatial Management Act.
Sustainable space settlement, which ensures balanced development of the areas, is closely related to the demographic composition of the population and demographic trends in the area. Demographic changes, especially those after 1990, will have to be taken into account more comprehensively than before in all fields of spatial planning. In the future they will have even greater significance in the changes of the spatial demographic structures and the distribution of the population. Slovenia, the Slovenian regions and municipalities are already facing problems such as population aging, the decrease in the number of young people and people in employment, decreasing natural growth, decreasing size of families and households. The result is the changed spatial distribution of population - concentration in urbanized and core settlement areas and decline in border and rural areas.
The aging of the population and the low birth rates caused significant changes in the composition of households and families. Changes are already reflected in the functioning of networks of certain institutions, e.g. primary schools, kindergartens, elderly people's homes, health institutions, post offices, banking units, etc. The change in the size and composition of households also has a decisive impact on the adequacy and utilization of the building fund and on housing policy.
The research will be carried out at the spatial level of municipalities and development regions (NUTS 3), as defined by the Promotion of Balanced Regional Development Act. The research will take into account three strategic documents (and their amendments that are in preparation) in the definition of research contents and objectives: the Spatial Development Strategy of Slovenia, the Slovenia's Development Strategy 2014-2020 and the Operational Program for the Implementation of the European Cohesion Policy for the period 2014–2020.
Research project goals:
• Preparation of expert groundwork and platforms in the area of demographic development for the preparation of regional spatial plans.
• Identification of the causes of demographic structure by region - for this purpose a more detailed analysis of the areas within the regions will be made.
• Areas with depopulation, stagnation or moderate demographic development and areas with vital demographic development will be identified.
• Evaluation of the future development of household characteristics for the needs of planning an appropriate network of supplying services of general interest.
• Evaluation of the necessary immigration on the basis of demographic projections for the preservation and reproduction of the labour-force contingent of the population and consequently for the preservation of settlement.
Goals will be achieved through eight work packages:
Work Package 1: Project management (coordinated by ZRC SAZU).
Work Package 2: Dissemination of results (coordinated by ZRC SAZU).
Work Package 3: Determination of demographically homogeneous areas and analysis of basic socio-economic indicators (coordinated by ZRC SAZU).
Work Package 4: Demographic Projections (coordinated by ZRC SAZU).
Work Package 5: Identification of problem areas based on socioeconomic analysis and demographic projections and comparison with propulsion zones (coordinated by ZRC SAZU).
Work Package 6: Identification of key development challenges linked to demographic development and finding solutions (coordinated by FGG).
Work Package 7: Evaluation of the demographic potential of the regions and the definition of strategic guidelines for the spatial development of services of general interest at national level (coordinated by FGG).
Work Package 8: Guidelines for the preparation of expert groundwork in the field of demography for the needs
Significance for science
Demographic change in Slovenia in the last quarter of the 19th century radically changed the Slovene society. The falling birth rate, which does not allow for the restoration of generations, has resulted in an aging population. The share of the elderly population is increasing both in relation to the number of children and in relation to the number of persons in employment. All demographic projections (Slovenian, EOROPOP 2008 and EOROPOP 2013) show that these demographic trends will continue in the next decades. Since 1990, the changes in the political and economic system have led to a crisis of local economies. This led to the destabilization of the previous settlement pattern. The population started moving towards larger employment centres and urban areas. On the other hand, areas with stagnation in population development or depopulation have increased. Depopulation is present in a large part of the border areas and some other rural areas with low population density. Negative demographic development is also present in some smaller towns in peripheral areas. The survey will provide the following findings on the characteristics of population and settlement:
- intensity and direction of internal migration,
- strength and direction of migration with other countries,
- definition of areas with a aged population, which can no longer reproduce,
- definition of major border regions and rural areas characterized by depopulation,
- definition of urbanized areas from which the population emigrates for economic reasons,
- definition of demographically vital urban areas due to stable economy and immigration,
- definition of demographically vital suburban areas in the hinterland of employment centres,
- role and direction of daily mobility of the population,
- demographic projections will assess future development in the above areas,
- with demographic projections would assess the need for immigration from abroad, which would preserve settlement and employment rates.
The research itself will bring new insights important for the scientific study of Slovenian society. The results obtained will enable publishing in scientific journals and presentation of results at scientific conferences. The study will also include a management approach - finding possible solutions to mitigate depopulation processes and the role of spatial planning in it.
Significance for the country
The key contribution of the research to the economy will be in the long-term improvement of the social and economic conditions in the economically less developed and depopulated areas. The research will in the part that will identify possible scenarios and strategies for stopping depopulation processes also identify the possibilities of economic development on local bases. The results will contribute to the rational development of networks of services of general interest, which will at the same time ensure a quality life of the local population on the principles of cohesion. The survey will analyse socio-economic situation in the demographically homogeneous areas, including their labour market and the solutions that would improve conditions on the labour market. Thus, economic conditions will be strengthened.
Most important scientific results
Final report
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Final report
