Projects / Programmes
Macroeconomic econometric analysis of development, growth, and internal and external stability of the Slovenian economy
January 1, 2014
- December 31, 2017
| Code |
Science |
Field |
Subfield |
| 5.02.01 |
Social sciences |
Economics |
Economy sciences |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| S180 |
Social sciences |
Economics, econometrics, economic theory, economic systems, economic policy |
| Code |
Science |
Field |
| 5.02 |
Social Sciences |
Economics and Business |
Researchers (9)
Organisations (1)
| no. |
Code |
Research organisation |
City |
Registration number |
No. of publicationsNo. of publications |
| 1. |
0541 |
EIPF, Economic Institut |
Ljubljana |
5051452000 |
1,703 |
Abstract
The financial and economic crisis has shaken the foundations of European integration, the way forwards has become uncertain. The introduction of the euro was largely a political decision without strong economic fundamentals, which has proved to be fatal in the crisis, while proposed solutions were more or less randomly integrated in the system, but there is not yet final picture of future system. By major economic characteristics and economic structure Slovenia would belong to a group of optimum currency area countries, if it did not change the development in years before the crisis and became highly indebted by the creation of virtual wealth which was destroyed by the crisis. The previous high dependence on the EU, which was reflected primarily in the shares of trade and institutional integration, has been reduced to adaptation to the required EU measures. In the analysis, the project will discuss the possibility of adjusting Slovenia to precarious institutional and economic development, and EU requirements. In this context, the direction of institutional development are unclear and uncertain, because the member states can not agree on how to create effective fiscal union that has no transfer union, or how to create a functional banking union having in mind a variety of prevailing conditions in their banking systems. The analysis is a continuation of the project F5-0287, for which a complex macro economic model was constructed to analyze the Slovenian economy in the framework of EU economy. Any analysis of the situation and the possibilities for action in the research program will be based on data from the European institutions, Eurostat and ECB in particular, the links between macro-economic aggregates will be analyzed using econometric methods. This will allow to find the best options for adapt Slovenia to economic, social trends, and institutional changes in the EU and the euro area.
Significance for science
In the process of carrying out a research program, we expect quite a few contributions to science, particularly in the field of economic modeling and analysis of the operation of a modern, socialy and market oriented economy in the circumstances of the global financial and economic crisis, in the circumstances of the deepening of all kind of integration, from economic, fiscal, financial, social and political. From the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 until today, is becoming more and more clear that past paradigm based on extensive borrowing, financial deepening, the transfer of production to less developed parts of the world and large-scale infrastructure investments has come to its end and it has laft behind extensive imbalances at the all field of social, political and economic life, so in the field of public finances, balance of payments, the financial sector, labor market, pension scheme and contemporary socio-market-oriented economy, marked by great openness, integration, monetary and fiscal constraints and indebtedness. Given the above, we expect a significant contribution to science also at the field of conducting economic policy to tackle macroeconomic imbalances in the field of forecasting economic trends and at the field of promotion of sustainable economic and social development of the contemporary economy.
Significance for the country
Modern economy and conduct of economic policy is not possible without appropriate adjustments to the new situation that arose after the onset of the global financial and economic crises in recent years. Also, all of the above is not possible without the integration of advanced models for analysis and forecasting economic activity and quality data bases. This can only be the result of continuous macro-economic research and empirical analysis. The results of the proposed program will allow continuation of work that our research team has started and it is going to help Slovenian economy to step back on the path of long term stable, socialy acceptable and sustainable economic growth and it will bring such needed economic activity to all sphere of our economy. In this context, we also expect that the results will help to asses the consequences of past events and to estimate future economic trends. It is also wort mentioned that the members of the research team are able to develope innovative and mostly empirically supported methods of analysis and forecasting and they are able to integrate this into practice.
Most important scientific results
Annual report
2014,
2015,
2016,
final report
Most important socioeconomically and culturally relevant results
Annual report
2014,
2015,
2016,
final report
